Horseracing Betting

DAY ONE

Supreme Novice Hurdle

Amaretto Rose heads the market at betdirect in the Festival opener having won her two races over timber by an aggregate of 31 lengths. She lacks the experience of many of her rivals and may have been flattered by the margin of her success at Haydock last time (others went off too fast), but she gets a 7lb sex allowance and the form of her Warwick win has been franked by the runner up Hobbs Hill 20l success at Folkestone recently. With the Festival likely to be Mick Fitzgerald’s last it would be a poignant moment if the popular Irishman got favourite backers off to a winning start. The Irish do not have their usual first-race banker with doubts surrounding the well-being of de Valira in recent days. Paul Nicholls is sweet on the chances of Granit Jack who has been suffering from stomach ulcers for most of the season, and Osana was most impressive at Wincanton last time. betdirect are offering ¼ 1-2-3-4 on this race during Happy Hour on Tuesday (10.30-11.30am).

Arkle Chase

Fair Along has been the betdirect ante-post favourite for most of the season, but I believe My Way De Solzen will go off at the head of the lists if Alan King and connections give last year’s World Hurdle winner the green light (also has Ryanair Chase option). Fair Along beat My Way De Solzen fair and square at Sandown earlier in the term, but King’s charge is better going left-handed and could easily improve past Phillip Hobbs’s charge who is also due to run in the County Hurdle which brings the curtain down on the Festival on Friday. Don’t Push It may have beaten Denman earlier in the campaign at Cheltenham but for a mistake three out, and connections obviously believe him to possess the pace for the minimum trip although it was only a poor race he won at Chepstow last time.

Champion Hurdle

The Irish, as ever, have a strong hand in the first day highlight with Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace (winners of the last three renewals) taking on the young pretender in the shape of Detroit City who is 2/1 favourite with betdirect. The statisticians will tell you that 5y-olds cannot win the race, but this is a bull of a horse who keeps improving and he doesn’t have the miles on the clock that his two market rivals have. It is possible that all three will help force the pace and if they go off too hard they may set the race up for a finisher with Sublimity, Straw Bear and Mac’s Joy filling the stalking seats. Last year’s juveniles were a very good bunch and Detroit City was head and shoulders above the rest, but is he ready to take on the Irish challenge?

William Hill Chase

The first of a number of ultra competitive handicaps with leading Grand National fancies Little Brick and Far From Trouble heading the market. The former is 7lb higher than when landing a competitive Wincanton event last time, whilst the latter has not been seen over fences since his Galway Plate win back in the summer. A recent Hurdle success ought to have put him spot on for the race, and he is highly regarded by JP McManus and Christy Roche. Three others to consider are Turko from the Paul Nicholls yard who was very impressive at Fontwell last time, New Alco who has been running very well in defeat for Fedry Murphy all season (Murphy had two winners over fences at last year’s Festival) and Distant Thunder who looked a horse to follow on his reappearnce back in the autumn, but has been off the course since. With non runner no bet with betdirect you don’t have to worry whether Distant Thunder gets into the race; if he fails to make the cut you will, of course, get your money back.

Sporting Index Chase

The teenagers Spot Thedifference and Native Jack have won the last two renewals and are back for more again, but the Irish look to have another potential cross-country star in Heads Onthe Ground (7/2 with betdirect) representing Enda Bolger (also saddles Spot Thedifference). Heads Onthe Ground was a fluent winner from Silver Birch in a similar event at Punchestown last time, and gets into the race off just 10st 2lbs. If Pass Me By takes to the course he will go well, although he does prefer to race right-handed.

Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle

Pouvoir looks well treated in the last race on Day 1 given he was only just touched off by leading Triumph Hurdle fancy Degas Art at Aintree earlier in the season. With top-weight Zilcash in the same yard (Alan King), it looks as if the weights won’t rise and Pouvior will carry 10st 10lbs. Others to consider in a wide-open event are Gaspara (3/1 favourite with betdirect) from the Pipe yard and Pancake from the Philip Hobbs stable. It could be a very good first day for Alan King the Master Of Barbury Castle but who do you fancy on day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival?

DAY TWO

Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle

Aran Concerto representing Noel Meade is likely to go off one of the shortest priced jollies of the four days he is currently 7/4 with betdirect, but confidence amongst the Irish appears to be waning in the build up to the event with the stable not exactly firing on all cylinders. Meade has described the horse as the best has had through his care and he certainly looks the part, but you can pick holes in his form and Catch Me was travelling as well as Aran Concerto when brought down two out. The best of the home challenge looks likely to be Silverburn from the Paul Nicholls stable. No match for Wichita Lineman on his reappearance he has been impressive in landing both subsequent starts including the Grade 1 Toilworth Hurdle at Sandown back in January.

Royal & Sun Alliance Chase

The second short priced favourite of the day is Denman currently a top-priced 5/4 with betdirect who is unbeaten in four starts over fences and could hardly have been more impressive at Newbury last time. Ruby Walsh suggests this is his banker, but connections made the same noises before last years Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle when he gave best to Nicanor at 11/10. If he is to be beaten again this time David Pipe is convinced it will be by Dom D’Oregeval who was a top-class hurdler for Nick Williams previously.

Champion Chase

The third short-priced favourite in a row sees former Arkle winner Well Chief attempt to land the Queen Mother Champion Chase for David Pipe. He has the form in the book to make short work of today’s rivals, but horses often “bounce” on their second start after a long layoff. Last year’s winner Newmill will appreciate the drying ground, as will the Arkle winner of 2006 Voy Por Ustedes, but the Chief looked as good as ever at Newbury in the Game Spirit and is the one to beat.

Coral Cup

There is no short priced favourite in one of the biggest betting events of the Festival. betdirect will be offering 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4 and 5 places. The Irish look to have a very strong hand, having landed the prize last year with Sky’s The Limit despite carrying top-weight. Oscatello looks interesting having his first start for Philip Hobbs.

Kim Muir Chase

Another tricky puzzle to solve with a maximum field of good handicap chasers ridden by amateur riders. Liberthine is likely to be one of the market leaders for Sam Waley Cohen and Nicky Henderson with betdirect. Her main objective is the Grand National but her odds will shorten considerably if she lands this event. At a bigger price Cloudy Lane can run well for Donald McCain and watch out for Character Building if connections decide to go down this route.

Champion Bumper

The Irish have an excellent record in this race and Aranleigh, Cork All Star and Mad Fish head the market. The home challenge is headed by Carl Llewellyn’s Den Of Iniquity and Malcolm Jefferson’s Tot O’Whisky who are 10/1 and 12/1 with betdirect. Jefferson has won the race previously with Dato Star back in 1995 and he compares his new star favourably with that great performer.

DAY THREE

Jewson Novices’ Chase

The third day of the Festival begins with one of the most competitive looking events of the week. Denman appears to have frightened much of the opposition away from the Sun Alliance Chase but many are due to do battle over the intermediate trip of 2m 5f in this relatively new race at the meeting. Moncadou failed to get home over 3m on his first couple of starts in Britain but this trip looks ideal and he couldn’t have been more impressive at Folkestone last time. JP McManus has a strong hand in the race with King Revo another who looks very well handicapped on his best hurdle form, he is currently available at 11/2 with betdirect. Evan Williams had a welcome winner at the weekend and Pole Star looked a potential star earlier in the campaign.

Ryanair Chase

Monet’s Garden landed a sub-standard Grade 1 last time, but this doesn’t look the greatest of renewals and Nicky Richards is adamant this is the ideal race for his star grey. Too Forward and our Vic are likely to give the Northern raider plenty to think about with the latter a very high class animal. Taranis took advantage of a lenient handicap mark over timber last time and Paul Nicholls highlighted this race as his Festival target some time ago. Racing Demon has been re-routed from the Gold Cup but his tendency to jump out to his right is a negative.

World Hurdle

Black Jack Ketchum has been antepost favourite with betdirect all winter but was a massive drifter in the markets last week because of the forecast soft/heavy ground. With the ground likely to ride no worse than good to soft he has attracted sustained support in recent days, but there are many dangers including former winner Inglis Drever, Mighty Man, Blazing Bailey in what looks a cracking renewal of Thursday’s feature. Asian Maze may take her chance if she comes out of Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle in one piece and she would have a great chance if those exertions haven’t taken their toll.

Racing Post Plate

Far From Trouble will bypass the 3m+ handicap Chases on the first couple of days to wait for this competitive handicap. JP McManus has a very strong hand in the handicap chases and it would be no surprise to see a number of JP gambles this week. Nycteos couldn’t take advantage of a good hurdle mark on his reappearance, but Paul Nicholls is confident of a bold show. Knowhere has lost his way since the autumn but Nigel Twiston-Davies considers him his best Festival hope and he is likely to go very close.

National Hunt Chase

Gungadu would be a single figure price for the Sun Alliance Chase, looks a thorough stayer and is likely to be one of the shortest priced favourites of the week. He jumped out to his right at Warwick on his penultimate start, but jumped a couple out to the left at Ascot last time. He obviously has his quirks but he looks a class apart although Point Barrow and Far From Trouble have failed to land gambles in this 4miler. Character Building is a favourite of mine and looked in rude health at Leicester last time, but Gungadu should take the beating if safely negotiating the fences, although that is a big if having made a shocking error en route to success in the Reynoldstown Chase last time.

Pertemps Final

Last year’s winner Kadoun must have every chance of following up last year’s success currently a best priced 10/1 at betdirect. Refinement isn’t the biggest of mares to be carrying over 11st over 3m+ but she does have a touch of class and will have the services of Tony McCoy. At a much bigger price Desert Tommy is out of the handicap but is the subject of positive noises from his camp.

DAY FOUR

Triumph Hurdle

Irish mare Lounaos is likely to go off market leader (currently 4/1 favourite with betdirect) but she may have been flattered by her proximity to Hardy Eustace and co last time although her mares’ allowance is a big help. Phillip Hobbs saddled the first two home last year and Liberate will appreciate the forecast drying ground. Degas Art is closely matched with Katchit on Wetherby running earlier in the season and looks sure to go close although the Howard Johnson stable have not been in particularly good form in recent weeks. Mountain didn’t the most natural of hurdlers on his debut, but is entitled to come on for the experience and has a touch of class.

Brit Insurance Hurdle

Wichita Lineman looks the one to beat for Jonjo O’Neill. Half-brother to Rhinestone Cowboy he has only lost one of four starts so far this term including in Grade 1 company in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury over Xmas. Black Harry and Hairy Molly have attracted market support from betdirect customers in recent days and these two look the best of the Irish challenge.

Gold Cup

A race that revolves around the brilliant Kauto Star who has carried all before him so far this term. It is well documented that the horse has made mistakes on his last couple of starts but he looks head and shoulders above the opposition, but will he stay the three and a quarter mile trip? The weather forecast suggests the ground may be no worse than good to soft come Friday and he is considered by many to be the Festival banker; others are convinced he won’t stay or his mistakes will take their toll. State Of Play (10/1 with betdirect) is sure to have been brought back to the boil by Evan Williams and his Hennessy win back in November was impressive albeit some way short of Kauto Star’s level of form. Beef Or Salmon looks the best of the Irish but this wonderful warrior has never been at his best at Prestbury and the weather looks to be turning against him.

Foxhunters Chase

Run over the C&D over the Gold Cup last year’s winner Whyso Mayo has looked better than ever this year and many consider him one of the Irish bankers of the Festival. Patches and Bica look the best of the home challenge in a race which lacks the quality of previous years.

Grand Annual

The dogs have been barking Saintsaire a 10/3 shot with betdirect since the weights were announced and he certainly looked impressive when trotting up at Newbury on Hennessy day. His trainer has protected his handicap rating subsequently and he looks as if he will be one of the gambles of the meeting. Foreman is due to head the weights but if he bypassed the event the race would change dramatically. Bambi de L’Orme has been knocking on the door in competitive races and deserves a big one. Nicky Henderson won the corresponding event last year and Tysou looks a major player.

County Hurdle

Phillip Hobbs has stated that Fair Along will run in the Festival finale as well as Tuesday’s Arkle and if Detroit City goes close in the Champion Hurdle there is sure to be plenty of support for last year’s Triumph hurdle runner up. The participation of Desert Quest brings Ouninpohja into the reckoning and the ground looks to be coming right for Sweet Wake (best priced at 12/1 with betdirect) although he has failed to live up to expectations having gone off favourite for last year’s Supreme Novice Hurdle.

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FEMME D’AVRIL 2.40 Fontwell

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CARRIETAU 2.50 Kelso
PERCUSSIANIST 3.20 Kelso
ORCADIAN 3.50 Newbury
BYWELL BEAU 4.25 Kelso

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